Introduction : Results of the French Presidential Elections in 2007

Auto  P07.1  

47.11  

0.98  

46.9  

Subject : Results of the French Presidential Elections in 2007

The population studied is that of polling presidential elections 2007. The data are the results for the first and second round of 65466 offices vote.
The contents of the file contains geographical information, the results of first and second rounds , as well as a policy variable stratification.
The percentage expressed studying the candidates in the second round ( Ségolène
Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy ) .
The result is known, the objective is to study the variability of the estimates sampling method. 
The exact value in this file differs very slightly from published by the Ministry of Interior results because it does not contain the results of French abroad.

Candidat (Name)	file	Ministery
Ségolène Royal	16509734(46.96%)	16790440(46.94%)
Nicolas Sarkozy	18648644(53.04%)	18983138(53.06%)

Context of the study

During election night, institutes (TNS, IPSOS, ...) are a sample of offices closing before 20 hours, and then extrapolate national results based on this sample. 

For the 2007 presidential election, the sample contained 220 TNS offices vote. 

The estimation was done with a regression estimator (on the first round), after stalling the sample (the results of the first round as well). 

Here are the estimates for the second round 20h 2007 TNS Sofres:

tendency	Scenarii	crude result	Corrélation	Estimation
Abstention	From 2007 first round	15.4	0.94	14.5
Sarkozy	From 2007 first round	52.89	0.98	53.1
Royal	From 2007 first round	47.11	0.98	46.9